Kenya’s Harambee Stars are once again in the thick of the battle for a spot in AFCON 2025, but with only group winners qualifying automatically and the four best runners-up going into playoffs, the challenge is tougher than ever.
With the qualifiers entering a decisive phase, Kenya’s hopes of returning to the continental stage rest on winning crucial matches and hoping results elsewhere go their way. But how realistic are their chances? Let’s break it down.
Harambee Stars at AFCON: A Brief History
Kenya’s national team has a long but inconsistent history in the Africa Cup of Nations. The Harambee Stars have qualified for the tournament six times, but their performances have often been underwhelming.
Kenya’s AFCON Appearances:
- 1972 – Group Stage
- 1988 – Group Stage
- 1990 – Group Stage
- 1992 – Group Stage
- 2004 – Group Stage (First AFCON win: 3-0 vs Burkina Faso)
- 2019 – Group Stage (Beat Tanzania 3-2 but failed to progress)
Despite their presence in past editions, Kenya has never made it past the group stage, a record they hope to change if they qualify for AFCON 2025.
How Many Wins Do Kenya Need to Qualify?
To secure qualification, Harambee Stars must either win their group or finish among the four best runners-up to enter the playoffs. Given the competition in their group, here’s what they must do:
Scenario 1: Winning the Group
- To top the group, Kenya needs to win at least four matches and possibly draw one, securing 13-15 points depending on other teams’ results.
- This means winning all home games and picking up at least one or two victories away.
Scenario 2: Finishing as a Best Runner-Up
- If Kenya fails to win the group, they must aim to be one of the top four second-placed teams across all groups.
- This usually requires 10-12 points and a good goal difference.
Currently, the biggest threat in their group comes from teams like Morocco, Tunisia, or Ivory Coast, meaning Harambee Stars must beat their direct rivals and avoid slip-ups against lower-ranked teams.
Can Kenya Qualify? Strengths vs Weaknesses
Looking at the current squad and form, Kenya has both strengths and weaknesses that will determine their AFCON 2025 fate.
Strengths
- A talented attack: Michael Olunga remains Kenya’s biggest goal threat, and his experience in top leagues will be crucial.
- Experienced players: Eric Ouma, Kenneth Muguna, and Joseph Okumu bring valuable international experience.
- Strong home support: Playing in Nairobi can be an advantage if Harambee Stars make Nyayo Stadium or Kasarani a fortress.
Weaknesses
- Defensive concerns: Kenya has struggled defensively in past qualifiers, often conceding late goals.
- Away form: Harambee Stars have rarely won away matches in AFCON qualifiers.
- Consistency issues: In previous campaigns, Kenya dropped points against lower-ranked teams.
Verdict: Will Harambee Stars Make It?
Kenya’s fate depends on how they perform in their next matches. They need at least three wins and one draw in their last four games to be in a strong position. However, their ability to win crucial away matches will make or break their campaign.
Prediction
- If they win three out of four remaining games, they have a high chance of making the playoffs.
- If they win two and draw one, qualification depends on other teams’ results.
- If they lose more than one match, their AFCON dreams are over.
The challenge is clear—win at home, fight for points away, and avoid defensive mistakes. Harambee Stars have a golden opportunity, but can they rise to the occasion?
