Kenya’s heavy reliance on a narrow range of food commodities is once again under the spotlight as new data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) points to sharp price increases in maize flour, sugar, and cooking oils items that dominate most household budgets.
According to the CBK’s latest perception survey, maize flour prices are expected to spike by up to 21 per cent in April, more than double the rate of increase reported in March. Sugar and cooking oils are also on an upward trajectory, driven largely by volatility in international markets.
While rising prices are not new, what is becoming increasingly clear is the country’s vulnerability: a food system heavily concentrated around a few staples and highly exposed to both seasonal shifts and global market disruptions.
“These fluctuations are no longer just about poor weather or fuel prices they reflect a deeper structural issue in Kenya’s food economy,” said an analyst familiar with the CBK’s data.
Despite efforts to promote diversification and support local production, Kenyan diets and food policy remain stubbornly centered around maize, with maize flour still being the primary staple for most households. This leaves consumers highly exposed to shocks from climate variability, supply chain disruptions, and global price surges.
Ironically, the same CBK survey shows that the prices of some traditional vegetables and rice commodities with potential to reduce pressure on maize and oil are expected to drop in April due to favorable weather conditions. Yet, these items remain underutilized, both in policy and in practice.
Experts warn that unless Kenya reduces its overdependence on a narrow band of food items and invests in localized, climate-resilient production systems, short-term price hikes will continue to morph into long-term food security crises.
